Jason Day’s West Coast dominance is predicted by Vincenzi American Express.

This weekend, the PGA Tour will be in California to compete at the 2024 American Express.

The event is held on three different courses, PGA West Stadium Course PGA West Nicklaus Course La Quinta Country Club.

Each golfer will therefore play two rounds on the PGA West Stadium Course and one round each at PGA West Nicklaus Course and La Quinta Country Club. Pete Dye designed the Stadium Course in 1986. It is a par 72 measuring 7,113 yards. The Nicklaus Course measures 7,159 yards and is a Par 72. La Quinta Country Club has a par of 72 and measures 7,060 yards. The courses are all short and play very easy for a Par72, which results in low winning scores.

The 2024 American Express Field is comprised of 156 players. The 2024 American Express field has the most golfers in recent history. Scottie Scheffler is one of the notable entrants. Daniel Berger, who has been on medical leave from 2022 until now, will also make his return to the PGA Tour.

Past winners of the American Express

• 
  2023 : Jon Rahm (27 years old)
  
• 
  2022 Hudson Swafford (-23)
  
• 
  2021: Si Woo Kim (-23)
  
• 
  2020: Andrew Landry (-26)
  
• 
  Adam Long (-26 years)
  
• 
  2018: Jon Rahm – 22
  
• 
  2017 Hudson Swafford (20)
  
• 
  2016: Jason Dufner (-25)
  
• 
  Bill Haas (-22),
  

Let’s look at a few metrics from PGA West in order to find out which golfers have the highest scores for each category during their last 24 rounds.

Strokes gained: Approach

American Express is a tournament in which distance off the tee will not be a significant factor. Strong iron players do well at PGA West, as none of the courses are long this week.

Total Strokes gained: Approach in the past 24 rounds:

1. Xander Schauffele (+24.8)
2. Scottie Scheffler (+23.7)
3. Sam Ryder (+22.4)
4. Erik Van Rooyen (+20.5)
5. Eric Cole (+19.4)

Opportunities Gained

The three courses on Tour this week are all among the easiest. Golfers will have to play very low in order to win. This week, it will be important to create as many opportunities as possible for birdies at 15 feet.

Total opportunities gained in the past 24 rounds:

1. Scottie Scheffler (+40.5)
2. Chris Kirk (+22.7)
3. Xander Schauffele (+22.5)
4. Justin Thomas (+22.2)
5. J.T. Poston (+22.0)

Proximity 150-175

The American Express has the most frequent yardage for approach shots. This range accounts for 24% of all approach shots, compared to the Tour’s average of 20 %.

Proximity 150-175 over the past 24 rounds:

1. Akshay Bhatia (+14.9)
2. Xander Schauffele (+11.7)
3. Sam Ryder (+11.5)
4. Taylor Pendrith (+11.3)
5. Mark Hubbard (+11.2)

Strokes gained: Ball Striking

This event has very small greens and there are few three-putts. The smaller greens will require golfers to use their ball striking skills to achieve low scores.

Strokes gained: Ball Striking during the past 24 rounds:

1. Scottie Scheffler (+41.4)
2. Erik Van Rooyen (+31.1)
3. Jhonnatan Vegas (+29.9)
4. Patrick Cantlay (+29.5)
5. Xander Schauffele (+28.0)

SG: Pete Dye

It is important to focus on players who have a good history on Pete Dye courses, as two of the four rounds will be played on Pete Dye’s PGA West. Dye-designed courses tend to attract golfers who have a good track record at these types of courses.

Total Strokes gained by Pete Dye over the past 24 rounds:

1. Scottie Scheffler (+52.5)
2. Patrick Cantlay (+47.0)
3. Xander Schauffele (+41.4)
4. Sungjae Im (+39.1)
5. Justin Thomas (+38.4)

Statistical model

I have reported the overall rankings of models using a combination from five statistical categories that we previously discussed.

This ranking is comprised of SG App (27%); Opportunity Gained (22%) SG Ball Striking (22%); proximity 150-175 (12%) and SG Pete Dye (17%)

1. Scottie Scheffler (+650)
2. Xander Schauffele (+1000)
3. Patrick Cantlay (+1000 )
4. Sam Ryder (+12000)
5. Eric Cole (+3500)
6. Chris Kirk (+3500)
7. Shane Lowry (+6000)
8. Doug Ghim (+12000)
9. Erik Van Rooyen (+10000)
10. Alex Smalley (+6500)

2024 American Express Choices

Jason Day +3500 FantasyDuel

Jason Day started his 2024 golf season off with a strong performance at The Sentry. He finished in a tie of 10th place. Day will prepare for the West Coast Swing, a stretch that has traditionally been where he has played his best. Last season was no different. The Australian placed 18th, 7th (5th), 9th and 5th at the American Express Phoenix Open, Farmers Insurance Waste Management Phoenix Open, and Genesis Invitational. Day’s preference for west coast greens was evident during this stretch, with gains of 4.9 strokes in putting.

Day is not a regular at PGA West. However, he played there last year and finished 18th, his second appearance at the event. Last year, he won the AT&T Byron Nelson with a score of -23. Day’s success on Pete Dye-designed courses is another reason for his expected success this week. In his last 50 rounds, Day ranks 4th among all players in Strokes Gained Total on Dye courses.

I think Day will continue to build on his 2023 resurgence and compete in at least one of these West Coast tournaments.

Sam Burns+3500 draftKings

Sam Burns’ history at the American Express is encouraging. Sam Burns has a history of success at the American Express. He has finished 18th, 6th, and 11th in his four attempts, along with one missed cut. He has also enjoyed the west coast swing with a third place finish in Riviera (2021), a sixth place finish in the WMPO (2023) and a seventh place at Fortinet (202020).

Sam Burns is a consistent performer on Pete Dye’s courses, having ranked 8th out of 24 in the last 24 rounds. I am confident in Burns’ chances of winning if he is in contention because he will be playing two of the four round at the stadium course including the final.

Burns can beat any player in the field if the American Express turns into a putting competition.

Tony Finau +4000 (FanDuel)

Tony Finau has also done his best work along the West Coast. He finished second at the Farmers Insurance Open in 2021 and the Genesis Invitational. Finau has seven top-5 finishes in the west, including the American Express 2021 where he narrowly lost to Si Woo Kim at the end.

Finau’s season didn’t get off to a good start at the Sentry, but he managed to improve his strokes with the approach and putter. I think a trip to the course he has played on before will be beneficial for him. He is one of most talented players. Finau’s past performances have shown that he is a fan of Pete Dye courses. He ranked 9th out of all players in Strokes Gained Total for his last 36 rounds.

Finau’s win equity is too attractive to ignore, even though he has been inconsistent.

Adam Hadwin +6500 FanDuel

Adam Hadwin is a player who performs consistently well on his favourite courses on the PGA Tour. The American Express’ rotation of courses certainly met that description. Hadwin, in his seven previous starts, has placed in the top 20, including four times in the top six.

Hadwin did not make the cut for the Sony Open last week, but he finished in the top 20 in Strokes Gained Approach’s first round. In the past, he’s shown that his Sony Open results do not translate to the American Express. The Canadian finished second at the American Express in 2019, after finishing 59th the previous week at Sony.

Hadwin hasn’t won since 2017, and it feels like he’s been waiting a long time for one. Three of Hadwin’s seven top-3 finishes have been at this event. PGA West is the only place I’m confident he’ll be able to succeed.

Alex Noren +8000 (DraftKings)

Alex Noren is a sneaky golfer who has played some amazing golf since the end 2023 PGA Tour Season. In November, Noren finished second at the Butterfield Bermuda. He also placed 23rd in the RSM Classic. In October, he finished third at the Shriners. This is a region and course that shares many similarities with what we’ll see at the American Express this week.

Noren has also finished 2nd in the Farmers 2018 which resulted in a loss to Jason Day on the sixth hole of a playoff. He was also 6th at the WMPO 2022 and 12th at Genesis Invitational.

The Swede is yet to win a PGA Tour title, but has ten DP World Tour victories. Noren has the talent and potential to win. He is also showing signs that he will be able to return to his form which made him a Ryder Cup competitor in 2018.

Erik Van Rooyen +11000 (FanDuel)

Erik Van Rooyen hasn’t shown any signs of slowing since he won in Mexico, at the end 2023. He gained 3.3 strokes in approach at the Sentry and finished 22nd. Last week, he had an even better performance with irons at the Sony Open. He gained 4.8 strokes.

EVR was in bad form when he finished 6th in the American Express in 2009, having missed six of his previous seven cuts before the event. The South African has won birdie-fests before and this event is where players have consistently beaten triple-digit odds.

Van Rooyen is ranked 2nd for Strokes Gained – Ball Striking in his last 24 rounds.

Patton Kizzire +27000 (FanDuel)

Patton Kizzire placed 11th in the American Express Open last year, after finishing 76th at the Sony Open. He was 22nd in 2022, and his improvement over the years suggests that he has figured out how to play courses.

Kizzire is no stranger to the West Coast, having played well there in the past. He has had two top-5 finishes at the Shriners as well as a 7th at Torrey Pines. Kizzire also has a good record at similar events to Hudson Swafford who won the American Express two times.

Kizzire, a two-time PGA Tour champion, is the kind of longshot who I think can pull an upset if he plays at PGA West this weekend.