The start of The Masters is celebrated by the golfing community in less than a month.
This week is traditionally when the excitement really kicks up. The Players Championship is the first time a top-class field has been seen. This has all changed with the introduction of the PGA Tour’s elevated events. These tournaments are a series that offer lucrative opportunities that have been able to tempt players who might have thought they were a week away.
There have been four tournaments like this since January with season-long contestants for the world number 1 slot.
Jon Rahm won both the Genesis and the Tournament of Champions, while Scottie Scheffler retained his Phoenix Open title. Kurt Kitayama was the winner of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but there were many other challengers including Scheffler and Rory McIlroy. It takes a lot of effort to beat the best when they are present.
Players can’t aim for Augusta week, and must be prepared weeks in advance. This week’s “fifth” major is so interesting, as we’ve seen many of the top players show their skills.
Sawgrass is a captivating attraction. It shares a lot with Augusta, more than just field quality, thanks to Pete Dye’s feature tracks.
Sawgrass requires players to locate the fairway and have their irons pointed. If they are unable to reach the dancefloor, Sawgrass will ask them to scramble like a demon.
There are many lessons to be learned from this course at less than 7200 yards. It can certainly be said that it helped the winners, with the trio finishing 14th in driving distance.
This is, however, a second shot course.
Cam Smith and Justin Thomas were ranked fifth in strokes-gained approach. McIlroy was only one place below them.
Rory is the one who gives the most clues to this event, after the move-in month and the change of greens.
To be more aggressive, you can use a shorter club to help you get back in position. The rough isn’t as long and as gnarly. Even though you’re running into the pine straw, you still have some shot and control over your ball. Then, when you miss the greens you don’t have to deal with Bermuda. You’re not trying to guess how this will turn out. It lends itself to more aggressive playing. It’s not clear if the course is more difficult or easier. We will find out what stroke average it is at the end. It’s playing longer so it will play longer for most guys. I believe it should even out. However, I like the course as it is in March .”
Best Bet – Viktor Hovland
Rory McIlroy, the current joint-favourite, is more appealing than Jon Rahm or Scottie Scheffler at the top of this market.
He could have easily won at Bay Hill on Sunday with a last hole putt that was close enough for his fans to cheer him on. He would have had three wins in six of his previous events. Rahm is the world number one for tee to green, and he has won here in 2019.
After an opening 65, the Spaniard looked to be on his way to his sixth win in ten races. He finished 39th and showed moderate course form, giving him the upper hand at single figures.
Scheffler just missed the Arnold Palmer. His birdie putt at 17 gave the hole a look, possibly affecting his play on 18. Scheffler looks great, but he will have to overcome his 55th-place finish last season. This is surprising considering he entered Sawgrass with a run of 1/7/1 and won back-toback at Austin CC.
The masses yell “NOOOOO” as Viktor Hovland is announced this week. But, I think this is the moment he takes the lead in a similar fashion to Cam Smith.
This course rewards good ball-strikers, as evidenced by Keegan Bradley’s seventh and fifth places in his four previous starts here. These, along with others, prove that even the most frail golfers can still do well on this course. The 25-year-old Norwegian is a great fit.
There is nothing wrong with the Norwegian’s game, ranking 5th in driving since Pebble Beach and 25th in ball-striking during the past three months. It’s clear that the problem is with the short game. This is something that many can’t overlook. However, I’m willing to pay the price for the opportunity to be a contender for a spot among the elite.
Hovland finished last for his short game, particularly rounds one and two. Kitayama was just four shots ahead of Hovland. This is a player who found more than his A1 game from the tees to the green. Given his efforts in top-class PGA Tour competition and that, I’m glad to be an outlier.
Twice Mayakoba winner, where finding the fairway can be a huge advantage. Also at the Hero World Challenge, knockabout but many of the world’s most elite were there – he brings in a Bay Hill runner-up in 2022 to complement Sunday’s top-10 and top-five finishes at Riviera, as well as a fourth place finish at Sedgefield, where half-a dozen Players champions have also been awarded.
Pete Dye’s form is not very good, but Hovland scored an 11th at River Highlands in the second of his two starts there. He was also top-30 at the USPGA held at Kiawah Island.
The Norwegian star failed to make the cut in his debut, but he finished in the top 10 last season, leading the field in tees-to-green. Although his poor game cost him six of the 14 shots he made, he is just one chip away from being back in the top-10. He can begin here.
Max Homa is a player that seems to be easy to read. The classic shot-makers track suit is Max Homa. He can also grind out pars and prove his remarkable improvement by competing here. However, I felt that he was worth serious consideration for Augusta. At 10 points larger, he is still worthy of serious consideration.
Equally, Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas must each have claims if everything goes according to plan for four days. However, it is difficult to choose between them.
Dangers by Sahith Theegala & Sam Burns
I am leaving this illustrious group to try and make Sam Burns come alive in Florida.
It would be rare to win here after two missed cuts, but his price has fallen to a large enough amount to take the chance that the two-time Valspar Champion can also make an impressive effort like he did 12 months ago.
Innisbrook suits the 26 year-old. He beat Keegan Bradley twice to win his first Valspar. Paul Casey (3rd at Sawgrass) was also victorious, beating Jason Kokrak (10th in 2021), Louis Oosthuizen (runner up), Patrick Reed, and Tiger Woods (twice Players champion).
Burns has never been to Bay Hill. A ninth place is the highlight of a few outings. But he was 26th last year here on his second event outing. He led at half-way after an opening 68/69 and found the putter his best club.
Although two weekends off may seem poor, a quick glance back to just one month ago shows Burns finishing sixth at Phoenix and eleventh at American Express. Rounds of 64 (twice), make Burns’ current performance difficult to comprehend.
Burns is currently playing with drivers, but as a long-term member in good standing of the top-20 club, he will eventually figure it out. At the current price, it’s well worth the risk.
It will be difficult for a maiden in this event to win, but Sahith‘s victory at QBE Shootout provides some support.
The college star, aged 25, should have had at least one trophy at home before his win in Naples (Florida). He led the 2021 Fortinet Championship as well as the Phoenix Open last season and was well into the final straight.
He showed that he was not only a good player, but also showed that he is worthy of the top by finishing at 13/15/28 at the FedEx Cup events.
Apart from Tom Hoge’s victory, Pepperdine’s Pepperdine graduate has now made 11 of 12 cuts. He was also sixth back at Fortinet and a quick-closing fifth at Zozo and RSM, respectively, fourth at Torrey Pines and Riviera, and last week’s 14th at Bay Hill.
This latest result is in line with his seventh place at Valspar. He also ranks 30th for greens during the last three-months, and top-10 for par-4s that same time. Additionally, he has a solid pair top-five listings at Genesis and Farmers for irons and tees-to-green.
We are now looking for the next star, with the likes Homa being a part of the group, and Theegala reminding me of Rickie Fowler’s early days with his confident short game could be that one.
2023 Players Championship:
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Viktor Hovland-WIN/T5
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Sahith Itgala – TWIN/T10
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Sam Burns-WIN/T10/T20
