The Austin GC is the WGC Match Play’s best take by golfers, but the jamboree doesn’t offer much value as a betting medium for pre-event odds.
Although the tournament doesn’t include Cam Smith or his pals from LIV Tour, it features most of the top players from around the world. It is great to watch, but I think it is best to wait until the group stages are completed. Good luck if you play.
Instead, we’ll be heading to the Dominican Republic to take part in the Corales Puntacana Championship.Where world number 90 Wyndham is head the market.
He is likely the right favourite after making seven consecutive cuts and having a greater chance of winning the Valspar last week than the eventual fifth. Quotes of single figures can be very short, and I would rather be a layer than a backer.
The world ranking for the last five Corales champions has been around 219th. Joel Dahmen, 2021 winner, is at 79. This is a great opportunity to play with more progressive golfers and get bigger prices, given the unpredictable nature of the coast winds.
Brice Garnett, the 2018 victor, says this is a second shot course. Previous contenders have spoken of the importance mid-long-range irons. Although the course will not play all 7600 yards, it will be played with very little punishment from the tee. However, bombers who rank high in long par-4s or par-5s will be in an advantage.
Evidently, being coastal leads to other clues. All five of the champions had top finishes at places like Puerto Rico, Houston and Hawaii.
Unfortunately, the Mexican track last mentioned has been transferred to LIV, but it is still very relevant. Brice Garnett, Graeme McDowell, and Dahmen all finished at El Chameleon. Chad Ramey, last year’s winner, had previously placed in the top-20 at Bermuda, and fifth at Puerto Rico.
Best Bet – Akshay Bhatia
Respect to the top lot. However, given the recent rankings of the winners, it is obvious that the pair of improving young people make a great appeal due to their current world ranking of around 220, which almost certainly means they will be miles ahead in time.
After scoring two points in three matches at the U.S. victory in the 2019 Walker Cup, the highly decorated junior star became a professional after finishing second to the promising Michael Thorbjornsen at the 2018 US Amateur.
The 21-year old mixed various tours and inviteds to finish a close ninth at 2020 Safeway Open. She then had a brief 2021 season which saw a 30th at Pebble Beach (top-10 halfway) and a top-60 debut at the U.S Open.
2022 began well with a victory on the KFT by two shots in Bahamas. He also racked up two top-20s but they weren’t enough to earn his PGA Tour card.
Bhatia’s performance has been steadily improving since the end of the ’22 season. He finished 17th in Bermuda, followed by 45th at RSM and fourth when defending the Great Exuma Classic title. Then he was seventh at the Bahamas event one week later.
He was 49th at Honda, but he was actually 16th at the cut. His fast-finishing second at Puerto Rico three weeks ago is another proof of his ability to perform in similar conditions.
Latterly, a Wake Forest graduate (see Webb Simpson and Cameron Young, among many others), missed the cut at Copperhead but lost sight of his 21st place after the first round.
After his debut round in 2020, he was in the top-30. He said that he had gained more experience and is now able to learn more for himself.
Danger – Ryan Gerard
Although he is two years older than Bhatia’s, the 23-year old is still a beginner at pro golf.
Having played only eight times on Canada Tour – containing one win, a third and fourth place finishes and five times on KFT – including a career best third place in Columbia – there is no way to know how high the ceiling is for Jupiter residents.
Let’s take a shot at getting there this week.
Although it’s only a small sample, Gerard qualified for the Honda Classic via Monday Qu-school with a 69/63 to be third at halftime, before closing with a final round of 67, which was sole fourth behind Eric Cole and Chris Kirk, and Shane Lowry.
He was surprised to find a way to get into the Puerto Rico Open. There, he defied all expectations, finishing in the top-20 and then taking 11th.
He needed to finish higher than 54th to earn his STM membership to Bhatia’s Club. However, that was a little too much.
Ryan Gerard requires a T54 in two directions this week in order to secure Special Temporary Membership.
Through 13 holes, he was at +1.
A look inside how his last five holes were played @ValsparChamp. pic.twitter.com/s3vrrzEeXK
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR March 18, 2023
Although Gerard’s sample is small, it is sufficient to believe he could rise again in this field.
On the rare occasion that we have seen him play, he has that Spieth-like feeling and he feels he should be here telling the PGA Tour reporters:
It’s not surprising that I’m here. Although I might be surprised to find myself here so early in my career, I have always felt like I wanted it em.
Other to Note – Kevin Chappell and Brandon Matthews
Kevin Chappell is far more experienced than the other two choices.
The 36-year old is currently 23rd in the world. However, he has fallen to below 600. He has also dropped hint over the past two weeks that he might be close to the play that won Sawgrass’ Texas Open.
His body has been in decline since 2018, and golf has been a challenge. He has not had a top 10 score since October 2018. After missing nine of his 10 last cuts, the California resident is now 29th at Palm Beach Gardens (round positions: 84/48/50/29) while he is 15th at Puerto Rico (42/54/33/15).
The Strokes he gained at Honda were positive, and he hopes to at least replicate last season’s 15th place here. He was again far off the pace in the first round. This effort was one highlight of the last 18 months, along with repeat efforts at Texas (18th), Barbasol (21) and Honda (13th).
Although the work following major surgery took longer than expected, he claims he didn’t handle it well. Maybe that was a bad time and Chappell can now start to get back to where he belongs.
Brandon Matthews has a lot of appeal at three-figures, especially after his win on the Latino America Tour. This massive driver led those stats twice on the KFT and at the Sanderson Farms, and ranked second behind Rory McIlroy at the Honda Classic, when also being top 10 for greens-in-regulation.
There is still a lot of work to do on his overall PGA Tour form. Joel Dahmen won the title after missing six out of seven cuts. The three winning selections are at the KFT level. He made the cut at Brookline on his one major attempt – and all of us know a mammoth driver who took courses apart from times to time.
Top-10 Banker – Cameron Percy
Aaron Baddeley caught my attention. Aaron Baddeley is the ultimate family man. He loves a test in wind and has shown a little more consistency in his class this year. Cameron Percy, however, is his closest rival.
Although the 48-year-old Australian veteran has only one KFT title, it is likely that he will be making money at one of these ‘opposites’ events on the coast.
Percy’s game has a proud heritage. He is ranked among the top 10 in most likely places such as Bay Hill and Deere Run, Puerto Rico, Panama, and Puerto Rico.
He finished seventh at Puerto in 2021, his best finish, and he did the same three weeks later to place in the top five at this year’s event.
Percy was eighth at Sedgefield in 2022. He mixed with students of higher grades and, although he did not make the cut at the RSM or his home Open, Percy was 29th and 25th respectively after the first round. (6th after round 2 in Oz).
Although this season saw only two cuts from five starts it is clear that there are some points of relevance in a 12th at Honda and closing 16th last week At Innisbrook. This gives him reason to believe that he can continue his solid Corales record, which includes two top-eight finishes in the last two outings.
Recommendations:
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Akshay Bhattia – 33/1 TOP-5
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Ryan Gerard – 50/1 WIN/TOP-5
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Kevin Chappell 90/1 WIN/TOP-5
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Brandon Matthews 150/1 WIN/TOP-10
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Cameron Percy – 9/1 TOP-10
