The Waste Management Phoenix Open begins on Thursday in what is sure to be one of the most exciting events of the year. The PGA Tour is back to playing one course per event, which I find to be much more conducive to first round leader betting.
In the past five editions of the tournament, there have been nine first-round leaders or co-leaders. Of the nine, five have come from the morning wave, and four have come from the afternoon wave. It appears there is no real advantage to either starting time historically but that can always be influenced by weather.
As of Tuesday, the wind looks as if it may be a factor during round one. The early starters should see winds 8 MPH with gusts up to 18 MPH. The afternoon starters will have the slightly more difficult draw. Winds will be around 16 MPH with gusts up to 22 MPH. For this reason, I’d slightly favor AM starters but wouldn’t rule out the PM wave completely.
Waste Management Phoenix Open First-Round-Leader Selections
Keith Mitchell +9000 (Bet365)
First-Round Tee Time: 12:22 p.m. Local Time
TPC Scottsdale is the type of course where Keith Mitchell’s skill set could propel him up the leaderboard. He will be able to let it fly off the tee and is always capable of getting a hot putter. Mitchell has had some success in the event, finishing 10th in 2022 while shooting four rounds in the 60’s. He also finished 16th in 2020.
K.H. Lee +10000 (FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM)
First-Round Tee Time: 12:55 p.m. Local Time
K.H. Lee famously has played great golf at TPC courses, and TPC Scottsdale is no different. The South Korean came agonizingly close to victory at the event back in 2021, finishing one shot behind Brooks Koepka.
Lee missed the cut at The Farmers but had back-to-back top-30 finishes in his previous two starts at some easier courses in Waialae CC and PGA West. K.H. shot three rounds of 66 at the course when he contended so he’s no stranger to a low round at TPC Scottsdale.
Sam Ryder +12500 (Bet365)
First-Round Tee Time: 12:00 p.m. Local Time
Sam Ryder has been a boom-or-bust player, which is exactly what we’re looking for in a first-round leader bet. The 34-year-old recently had a hot stretch with the irons and is always a go-low candidate on easier courses.
Last year, Ryder finished 20th at the event, and he finished 23rd in 2022, but had a 2nd round 64, which would likely be good enough for FRL if he were able to repeat.
Victor Perez +15000 (BetMGM)
First-Round Tee Time: 9:10 a.m. Local Time
Victor Perez hasn’t played much in 2024, so this is more of a gut play than anything else. He missed the cut in his only start at the Farmers Insurance Open but was able to still gain strokes with his irons despite the disappointing finish.
Perez was playing great in the fall and finished 8th at the DPWT Championship. A week on the PGA Tour at Torrey Pines should have been enough to get his feet wet and feel comfortable this week in Phoenix on a course where his strong iron play could help him shoot a low round.
Adrien Dumont De Chessart+20000 (Bet365)
First-Round Tee Time: 1:50 p.m. Local Time
This is yet another gut play with Dumont De Chessart. The 23-year-old from Belgium has enormous upside and one of the more talented young players in the world but has struggled to start his PGA Tour career.
De Chessart opened his Farmers Insurance Open with a first-round 68, which was a solid score on a tough track. The laid-back atmosphere of TPC Scottsdale and the scoreable layout could be enough for the rookie to find the form that made him a threat to win multiple Korn Ferry Tour events at the end of last season.
