Vincenzi’s FedEx St. Jude Championship betting predictions: Tommy is ready to deliver.

Aug, 2023

Now that the PGA TOUR regular-season is over, it’s now time to start the FedEx Cup playoffs in 2023.

The event, formerly known as St. Jude Classic or WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational will be the first leg in the FedEx Cup Playoffs this season for the second time.

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TPC Southwind, located in Memphis Tennessee has been a TOUR stop for the past 29 years.

TPC Southwind measures 7,244 yards and is a par-70 course. The Bermudagrass rough and greens are featured on the course. There are 94 bunkers, 10 water hazards and potential danger on every hole.

The FedEx St. Jude Championship is a non-cut event that will host the top 70 players from the FedEx Cup standings.

Previous Winners at TPCSouthwind

The FedEx St. Jude Championship

  • Will Zalatoris (15)

FedEx St. Jude Invitational

  • 2021 : Abraham Ancer (-16

  • 2020: Justin Thomas (-13)

  • 2019: Brooks Koepka (-16)

St. Jude Classic

  • Dustin Johnson (-19), 2018

  • 2017 Daniel Berger (-10)

  • 2016: Daniel Berger (-13)

  • 2015: Fabian Gomez (-15)

5 Key Stats For TPC Southwind

Let’s look at the five metrics that are most important for TPC Southwind in order to find out which golfers have scored highest marks over their 24 round history.

1. Approach: Strokes gained

TPC Southwind has a short course and you don’t need to be a big hitter to compete. Justin Thomas won this event in 2020 by gaining 7.7 shots on the approach, compared to 2.3 strokes off the tee. Abraham Ancer won in 2021 by gaining 4.4 strokes off the tee and just 1.4 on the approach. Will Zalatoris won 7.7 strokes in 2022 on the approach, but only 1.8 off the tee. Strokes gained: Approach is this week’s most accurate statistic.

SG: App Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+40.0)
  2. Russell Henley (+27.6)
  3. Adam Schenk (+25.9)
  4. Alex Smalley (+25.2)
  5. Hideki Matsuyama (+25.1)

2. Ball Striking: Strokes gained

Strokes gained: While ball striking is a factor in the approach, it also includes golfers that keep the ball in play as well as solid approach play. Although distance is not the most important factor, golfers can get in serious trouble if the ball is sprayed off the tee.

Strokes gained: Ball Striking over the past 24 rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+67.5)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+37.5)
  3. Collin Morikawa (+37.4)
  4. Xander Schauffele (+36.8)
  5. Patrick Cantlay (+36.6)

3. Greens in Regulation Gained

TPC Southwind has a Green in Regulation rate of 59.2%, compared to the TOUR’s average of 65.8%. The course has historically been a great place for golfers who can control the ball. This week’s scoring will be difficult, so fairways and greens are the key to success.

GIR gained in the past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+43.9)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+38.7)
  3. Collin Morikawa (+37.5)
  4. Jon Rahm (+35.1)
  5. Alex Smalley (+28.7)

4. Par 4: 450 to 500

The par-4 distances on the course are usually between 450 and 500 yards. TPC Southwind has six holes in this range, which is more than double any other distance.

Par 4, 450-500 in the Last 24 Rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+25.0)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+24.9)
  3. Sam Stevens (+17.6)
  4. Viktor Hovland (+16.2)
  5. Keith Mitchell (+16.1)

5. Bogey Avoidance

TPC Southwind has six holes that have bogey rates above 17.5%. The field will have a tough time with holes 5, 7, 12, 14 and 17. Par is a good score for these holes. It will be important to target players who are prone to avoid any blemishes.

Bogey avoidance over the past 24 rounds:

  1. Tommy Fleetwood (+28.7)
  2. Hideki Matsuyama (+25.8)
  3. Rory McIlroy (+23.9)
  4. Patrick Cantlay (+21.9)
  5. Tyrrell Hatton (+21.7)

FedEx St. Jude Championship Model Rankings

I have compiled a list of overall model rankings based on a combination five statistical categories that we discussed previously — SG : Approach (26%), Ball Striking (23 Bogey Avoidance (18.1%), GIR Gained (18.4%), Par 4 450-500 (14%).

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2200)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+900 )
  3. Hideki Matsuyama (+1400)
  4. Xander Schauffele (+3500)
  5. Patrick Cantlay (+1)
  6. Jon Rahm (+3500)
  7. Wyndham Clark (+1400)
  8. Tommy Fleetwood (+1000)
  9. Rickie Fowler (+15000)
  10. Tyrrell Hatton (+1)

FedEx St. Jude Championship Outright Bets

Tommy Fleetwood (+3300 BeRivers )

Tommy Fleetwood has had arguably the best season of his career on the PGA Tour, but he is still winless in America. The Englishman’s year has seen him finish in the top ten six times and top five four other times. He has played even better in recent times, as he only missed the top ten once out of five starts.

Tommy has always played well on TPC Southwind if he is in top form when he plays the course. In 2019, he finished 4th after finishing 13th at Travelers Championship, and 2nd at Open Championship. In 2018, he was 14th at TPC Southwind, after finishing 7th, second, 12th, and 6th during the four events leading up to this event. Fleetwood’s poor performance on this course is usually a result of his lead-up form.

Fleetwood is ranked 10th among all golfers in Strokes Gained – Ball Striking, and first in Bogeys Averted in his last 24 rounds. His ability to avoid errors should serve him well in an event which may be relatively difficult.

FedEx Cup victory in the playoffs would be an excellent way to cap off a great year for this 32-year old.

Sam Burns (2000, BetMGM )

Sam Burns came so close to winning the TPC Southwind in 2021, but lost in a play-off with Abraham Ancer & Hideki Matsuyama. Burns finished 20th last year after playing well on the course.

The American has rounded into form just in time. He would love to be selected as a Ryder Cup captain and his recent performance may have him in contention for one of the last spots. He was 13th at the Wyndham championship last week and gained 4.6 shots on approach and 4 strokes putting. Burns has been a great putter in Bermudagrass, and he’s rolled the ball really well at TPC Southwind.

Burns would get a flight to Rome if he won the FedEx Cup Playoffs. The course is perfect for TPC Southwind.

Hideki Matsuyama (+4000, FanDuel)

Hideki Matsuyama is as simple to figure out as “Ice Puzzle 9”, but I believe he’s playing better than recent results may suggest. He missed the Wyndham championship cut last week but gained strokes off the tee and on the approach. A few balls that were plugged in the bunker, including one which fell into his footprint, cost him 5.8 strokes. Matsuyama’s greens play is usually excellent, so I do not believe that his poor performance in Memphis will continue.

Matsuyama, despite his relative struggles, ranks 5th on the field for Strokes Gained : Approach. He is 13th for Strokes Gained : Ball Striking. And he is 5th when it comes to Greens in Regulation Gained.

Hideki also played in the playoff for 2021 at TPC Southwind, with Burns and Ancer. He came just short of winning. He should be able to compete at the FedEx St. Jude Championship again with his elite iron play.

Harris English (+1000 FanDuel )

Harris English rediscovered his life last week at the Wyndham championship. After a slow beginning, he played better on the weekend and finished in 33rd place.

The most important thing is that English was able to hit the ball well after not playing for a couple of weeks following the Open Championship. The 34-year old gained 5.8 strokes in his category, the most since the Wells Fargo tournament in May where he placed third. English lost 3.0 strokes on the green which affected his score. This was an anomaly considering that he had consistently gained strokes in this area throughout his career.

English has a long and impressive history of playing at TPC Southwind. In addition to winning the course in 2013, he also finished 4th in 2020 and 10th in 2017.

If English can improve on his iron play of last week, he could be a contender this week in Memphis.

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